Russia and Ukraine begin 3-day ceasefire
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Ukrainian drone strike hits Russian Black Sea port, escalating tensions. Ceasefire by May 31, 2026 at 8.8% YES.
Ukraine launched a six-hour drone bombardment across ten Russian regions including Moscow, just hours before Donald Trump announced a historic ceasefire.
KYIV, Ukraine — Russia fired dozens of drones at Ukraine in nighttime attacks, Ukrainian officials said Wednesday, disregarding a unilateral ceasefire announced by Kyiv that began at midnight.
The “Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026” market is currently priced at 9.5% YES, down from 10% in the past 24 hours. The May 31, 2026 sub-market shows 5.5% YES, a slight decrease from 6% a day ago.