Trump, Ukraine and Russia
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Ukrainian drone strike hits Russian Black Sea port, escalating tensions. Ceasefire by May 31, 2026 at 8.8% YES.
Russian drone strikes have killed at least two people in the Ukrainian city of Odesa, with two others wounded, local authorities reported overnight into Saturday. The attacks on the Black Sea port city struck a residential area,
Ukraine launched a six-hour drone bombardment across ten Russian regions including Moscow, just hours before Donald Trump announced a historic ceasefire.
The “Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026” market is currently priced at 9.5% YES, down from 10% in the past 24 hours. The May 31, 2026 sub-market shows 5.5% YES, a slight decrease from 6% a day ago.